Monthly Archives: August 2015

Your Grandfather’s Model (Is Your Model too)

From John Taylor’s post on the fed’s model error: The solid black line plots changes in the estimated sacrifice ratio of unemployment to changes in inflation implied by the model over 64 vintages.   Could easily be an actuary’s pricing model. … Continue reading

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What Advice Would you Give to Your Younger Self?

Listen to extremely successful people answer this question and you get pretty bored pretty quickly. “Take it easy, it’ll all be ok”, “don’t stress so much”, “love and live more”… Their earlier selves were clearly serious strivers. It’s a nice … Continue reading

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Who’s At Your Table?

“If you could have dinner with four people, historical or living, who would be at that table?” A common interview question but every answer I’ve heard ignores the premise of a dinner: A five-person dinner isn’t about you, it’s about … Continue reading

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Trolling Diet Nuts

So if we cared mainly about people’s health, we should cheer this effort by soda forms to push people to exercise. Even if that also causes people to cut down less on soda. A population that exercises more doesn’t weight … Continue reading

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Words of Wisdom about Actuarial Science

My predictions are boring, and always the same: More of the same ahead My predictions are usually right, but they get no respect, and don’t deserve any. That’s from Scott Sumner, not an actuary.

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