Monthly Archives: March 2013

How LeBron Improved

Great piece on LeBron’s transformation after the 2011 Finals. First you need humiliation. According to Spoelstra, “It took the ultimate failure in the Finals to view LeBron and our offense with a different lens. He was the most versatile player … Continue reading

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Making Predictions

Here’s a good David Brooks column on forecasting: Tetlock and company gathered 3,000 participants. Some got put into teams with training, some got put into teams without. Some worked alone. Some worked in prediction markets. Some did probabilistic thinking and … Continue reading

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Age Inflation In Champions?

Decade by decade your overall reserves of energy drop a little. It’s not that you lose the ability to rise up and push-through. It’s that the hangover afterwards is worse, begins to accumulate, and lasts well into your next performance. … Continue reading

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Failure Is a Precious Thing

Ahem. Failure is actually an awful, painful and humiliating thing but its retelling sticks so much more firmly in our minds. Hearing how smart, motivated, honest people fail is valuable: put yourself in their place, empathize with their horrible decisions; … Continue reading

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More from *Thinking Fast and Slow*

Have a look at the graph below. This shows the how our mind is different from math.  The blue line shows a bell curve with probabilities increasing for events near the average. The red line is how we interpret the … Continue reading

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Insurers (finally) Starting to Ape Buffett

David Merkel reviews Buffett’s 10k: Buffett does very well, but I know of no other insurer that invests so much in equities funded by insurance liabilities.  There is a real risk that if the markets fall hard, a la 1929-32, … Continue reading

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Link1: Nuclear Potato Cannons; Link2: We Live in the 19th Century

I could like to every single one of the “what if” posts by Randall Munroe: The official record for fastest manmade object is the Helios 2 probe, which reached about 70 km/s in a close swing around the Sun. But … Continue reading

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